USD
The dollar waits for Warsh, but December is what it trades.
The Fed holds on Wednesday, and a hike this week is priced at under 10%. There are no new projections, so the press conference carries the signal. A December hike is already priced at 80-90%, which leaves little room for a hawkish surprise and more for a cautious one. Thursday brings Q3 GDP, where the Atlanta Fed model points to 3.5% after 2.2% in Q2, and September PCE. Core PCE is seen near 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, from 3.0% in August. Treasury yields have eased and the dollar index sits near a three-week low despite higher oil. Overall skew: neutral, with downside if Warsh pushes back on December.
