USD
October depends on the core rate.
Wednesday’s September CPI is expected at 3.6% y/y, pushed up by energy. Core should slow to +0.2% m/m. Markets give an Oct. 28 hike about a 20% chance, and only a clear core surprise changes that. Retail sales follow on Thursday. Overall skew: the Dollar draws more support from Europe’s problems than from the Fed. A soft core print caps it but does not reverse it.
