Week Ahead

Currency Overview (Premium Post)

USD

Near-term neutral, medium-term bearish. The DXY hovers around 100. A broadly-based disinflationary surprise, the largest downside miss in core CPI since April 2025, has significantly raised the bar for further Fed tightening. That said, renewed Middle East tensions pushing Brent above $85/bbl are containing USD selling, as higher oil prices could eventually force the Fed’s hand. If geopolitical risks recede, the dollar is likely to weaken more materially. Upcoming US PMI data will be the next key trigger.